本文摘要：By Apple’s own high standards, the hype surrounding Wednesday’s iPhone launch was looking more subdued than usual.按照苹果(Apple)自身的高标准，环绕周三iPhone发布会的舆论热度或许比以往要较低。

By Apple’s own high standards, the hype surrounding Wednesday’s iPhone launch was looking more subdued than usual.按照苹果(Apple)自身的高标准，环绕周三iPhone发布会的舆论热度或许比以往要较低。The company had just been hit by a Euro13bn tax bill by the European Commission. 这家公司刚刚遭到欧盟委员会(European Commission) 130亿欧元税务罚单压制。On top of that setback, for the first time since the device made its debut in 2007, sales of the iPhone are in decline. 除了这一挫折，iPhone销量自2007年问世以来首次滑坡。Supply-chain leaks point to a less radical redesign of the current model than Apple customers have come to expect every two years.供应链流入的消息表明iPhone新机型在设计上没过于多根本性转变，不及苹果客户间隔两年的期望。

Then on Friday Samsung handed its arch-rival an unexpected gift: one of the most costly product recalls the tech industry has ever seen.而上周五，韩国电子制造商三星(Samsung)给自己的主要竞争对手送来上一份车祸大礼——高科技产业有史以来最便宜的产品解任之一。Samsung is replacing all 2.5m units that it has shipped of its Galaxy Note 7 smartphone just weeks after its release, due to a spate of exploding batteries. 由于屡屡再次发生电池爆炸事件，三星将前几周前刚刚发货的250万部Galaxy Note 7智能手机全数解任。Just when the Korean electronics manufacturer was regaining momentum in the sluggish smartphone market, the sweeping recall resets Samsung’s attempt to head off Apple’s annual launch.三星刚在下滑的智能手机市场重拾动力，此番大规模解任让它抢走在苹果年度发布会前头公布新品的希望返回原点。

The timing is as bad for Samsung as it is positive for Apple, said Geoff Blaber, analyst at CCS Insight. CCS Insight的分析师杰夫布拉波(Geoff Blaber)回应：这一时机对三星起着的负面起到，与对苹果的正面起到非常。If consumers are facing a lengthy wait, it undoubtedly opens the door for its closest rival.如果消费者要面对漫长的等候，毫无疑问不会为最相似的竞争者带给机会。Samsung has said it will take just two weeks to manufacture replacement phones for customers, which could leave just enough time for Apple to bring its new iPhones to market first. 三星回应要用两周就不会为客户生产出有更换手机，这使得苹果可以刚好再行一步向市场发售新的iPhone。In the meantime, some mobile operators, including T-Mobile in the US, have said they will offer full refunds to Note buyers, leaving many with spare cash to spend on an iPhone if they feel they can no longer trust Samsung.此外，还包括美国T-Mobile在内的部分移动运营商回应将向出售了三星Note 7的消费者获取全额付款，这让许多消费者有闲钱出售iPhone——如果他们实在无法再行信任三星的话。

The pressure is definitely on Samsung. 布拉波回应：三星毫无疑问忍受着压力。It’s a huge amount of inventory that it needs to rebuild, Mr Blaber said.它必须修复可观的库存量。Until this incident, Samsung had been winning plaudits for its bold moves with the Galaxy S7 and latest Note 7 handsets. 在此事件之前，三星以环绕Galaxy S7和近期公布的Note 7手机的大胆措施夺得掌声。

After its smartphones had struggled against soaring sales of the iPhone 6 in 2014 and 2015, Samsung has regained market share in 2016 thanks to its S7 Edge’s curved screen and strong battery performance, two areas where Apple is seen as lagging behind its rival. 2014年到2015年iPhone 6销量攀升，三星智能手机陷入困境。随后在2016年，三星凭借S7 Edge的曲面屏和强劲的电池展现出——外界指出苹果在这两个领域领先其竞争对手——重夺市场份额。Following its mid-August debut, Samsung had sold 1m Notes before the recall.自8月中旬上市到此次解任前，三星Note 7已售出1百万部。

There’s no doubt in my mind that the timing of the Note launch was intended to pre-empt Apple’s announcement, said Jan Dawson, tech analyst at Jackdaw Research. Jackdaw Research科技业分析师简道森(Jan Dawson)回应：我指出Note的公布时机毫无疑问是为了抢走在苹果新品公布前头。Arguably, it worked well for Samsung at first — the Note 7 has been one of Samsung’s best-reviewed phones ever and it seems to have got off to a great start sales-wise as well.可以说道，这一策略一开始对三星效果很好，Note 7是三星有史以来评价最低的手机之一，而且销量情况或许也开了个好头。Mr Dawson praised Samsung for its swift reaction to the exploding battery problem. 道森赞扬了三星对电池发生爆炸问题做出的很快反应。

Nonetheless, at the exact moment when the iPhone 7 arrives, it will be impossible to buy Samsung’s latest product.但是才是在iPhone 7上市的那个时候，消费者将不有可能卖到三星的近期产品。That’s a significant black eye for Samsung, which will not only have to cover the cost of the recall but also lose several critical weeks of sales as well, Mr Dawson said. 道森说道：这对三星来说是一个根本性耻辱，它不仅要分担解任成本，还丧失了关键当口的数周销量。That could mean losing hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of sales and customers to its arch-rival.这有可能意味著数十万、甚至有可能数百万的销量和消费者萎缩到其主要竞争对手那里。Even without product malfunctions, eking out growth in the smartphone market is tough enough at the moment. 即使不经常出现产品故障，要在当前智能手机市场保持快速增长早已十分艰苦。

Analysts at IDC last week projected just a 1.6 per cent rise in global unit sales this year, down from 2015’s 10.4 per cent increase.IDC分析师上周预计，今年全球智能手机销量将仅有快速增长1.6%，2015年该数字为10.4%。Despite the iPhone 7’s anticipated new dual-lens camera and wireless headphones, Wall Street analysts had forecast that is the product’s current quarterly sales declines were unlikely to be reversed until next year.尽管iPhone 7新的双镜头和无线耳机受到期望，但华尔街分析师预测在明年之前，iPhone当前的季度销售上升趋势不大可能反败为胜。The dynamics in Apple’s largest user bases, being China and the US, have fundamentally changed, said Ben Bajarin, tech analyst at Creative Strategies. Creative Strategies分析师本巴加林(Ben Bajarin)回应：苹果仅次于的用户群在中国和美国，这些用户的动态早已有了根本变化。Apple is not really losing customers; people are just hanging on to their phones for longer.苹果并没知道萎缩客户，人们不过是减少了替换手机的频率。

Wall Street consensus forecasts are for iPhone unit sales to fall at least 8 per cent in the current quarter ending in September, which is likely to include at least a week of new product availability, to around about 44m units.华尔街共识性的预测是，在截至9月底的当前季度（还包括苹果新品上市后的最少一周），iPhone销量最少不会减少8%，降到约4400万部。Sales in the all-important December quarter are expected to be at best flat, at about 74m compared with 74.8m a year earlier, according to analysts polled by FactSet.FactSet的调查表明，在包括至关重要的12月的那个季度，销量充其量未来将会与去年同期持平，超过约7400万部，去年同期的这个数字是7480万部。Fuelling the near-term iPhone pessimism is the sense that the really big upgrades for the iPhone are coming in 2017, when the product celebrates its tenth anniversary — including a Note 7-style curved screen.就近期而言，令其人们对iPhone乐观的是这一辨别：在2017年，iPhone庆典问世十周年时，iPhone将步入确实根本性的升级，其中还包括使用三星Galaxy Note 7那种曲面屏。

This year, we are not hearing any killer applications, said Abhey Lamba of Mizuho Securities. 今年，我们没有听闻有任何令人无法排斥的新特性。It’s hard to have a good gauge of demand right now.瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)的阿巴伊兰巴(Abhey Lamba)说道，目前很难对市场需求作出精确的辨别。

However, Samsung’s mis-step could make the difference between growth and decline for the iPhone in the coming months. 然而，未来几个月里，三星的犯规有可能对iPhone是不会快速增长还是不会衰退产生影响。Mr Blaber said the recall could move the needle for Apple very slightly, albeit at most a couple of million units.布拉波回应，三星解任事件可能会让苹果的销量略为减少一点点，尽管充其量不会减少200万部。Apple’s iPhone Plus is the natural alternative to the Note 7 in that price tier, Mr Blaber said. 苹果的iPhone Plus是同一价位上Galaxy Note 7的天然替代品。

It is beholden on Apple that they can really get as much stock [on to the market] as fast as they can.布拉波说道，苹果必需保证自己能确实尽早（向市场）供应尽量多的货。Assuming they can do that, they stand to do very well out of Samsung’s misfortune.假设苹果能做这一点，他们认同将从三星的不幸遭遇中受益近于多。

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